Saturday, September 21, 2013

Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Above is a monthly chart of Nifty, :).
  2. We are tracking a big triangle on Nifty, with possibility of an "upward" resolution.
  3. A "?" following wave {E} suggests that, we may need some more price action inside the triangle boundaries before Nifty gives an actual breakout.
  4. The possible triangle pattern marked is huge and is already in its 6th year. One can imagine what the thrust from this huge triangle breakout will be.
  5. Looking back over last 6 years this might be the best R/R scenario that has developed, with strong backing of the triangle pattern and its post pattern implications.
  6. One can clearly define risk in such a scenario, and possible rewards are tempting.
  1. Looking at the weekly picture, we can see the pattern developing in wave {E}is not yet done.
  2. A special type of "Neowave" triangle may be forming, which requires wave E to complete.
  3. We may see prices reaching our for the 5740-5680 range, to form the final or last low of this 6 year long triangle, corrective pattern.
  4. Classical Technical Analysts, may spot a possible "Inverse HnS", in the making, a BO from the NL of which, will give us the required impetus to begin a new bull market.
  1. On the daily fractal, we need some more time to finish this wave D, may be till expiry of current (Sept 2013) series.
  2. Next month may take us down towards the zone identified by us as the possible ending zone of the 6 year long triangle.
  3. The down move has to be a 3 wave move. Upon completion of which we might begin the next bull market.
  • This analysis is being done on a very big fractal, and time targets mentioned anywhere in this post may lengthen/shorten as the market action develops.
  • The whole premise of the bull market rests on the perceived "triangle" pattern, and if it does not play out, the whole scenario may need a re-look.
  • My analysis attempts to identify, possible termination of known patterns, and then look for a low R/R scenario to trade. The counts and the forecast comes second, (Though this is in no way a trading recomendation.)
  • Targets for this potential setup has been reserved purposefully, as it depends on the individuals trading systems, to decide what the trade parameters will be. I will update my blog as and when I feel we are at a critical juncture of pattern development.
  • Most importantly, there is no compulsion for the readers to deliberate on what is shared on this blog, so if you don't like it, please look for better ones, that being said I always welcome constructive criticism.

1 comment:

  1. SIR
    Thank You for this week end update which is crucial.
    If possible please update levels for trading during market hours also tomorrow.


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