Saturday, September 21, 2013

Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Above is a monthly chart of Nifty, :).
  2. We are tracking a big triangle on Nifty, with possibility of an "upward" resolution.
  3. A "?" following wave {E} suggests that, we may need some more price action inside the triangle boundaries before Nifty gives an actual breakout.
  4. The possible triangle pattern marked is huge and is already in its 6th year. One can imagine what the thrust from this huge triangle breakout will be.
  5. Looking back over last 6 years this might be the best R/R scenario that has developed, with strong backing of the triangle pattern and its post pattern implications.
  6. One can clearly define risk in such a scenario, and possible rewards are tempting.
  1. Looking at the weekly picture, we can see the pattern developing in wave {E}is not yet done.
  2. A special type of "Neowave" triangle may be forming, which requires wave E to complete.
  3. We may see prices reaching our for the 5740-5680 range, to form the final or last low of this 6 year long triangle, corrective pattern.
  4. Classical Technical Analysts, may spot a possible "Inverse HnS", in the making, a BO from the NL of which, will give us the required impetus to begin a new bull market.
  1. On the daily fractal, we need some more time to finish this wave D, may be till expiry of current (Sept 2013) series.
  2. Next month may take us down towards the zone identified by us as the possible ending zone of the 6 year long triangle.
  3. The down move has to be a 3 wave move. Upon completion of which we might begin the next bull market.
  • This analysis is being done on a very big fractal, and time targets mentioned anywhere in this post may lengthen/shorten as the market action develops.
  • The whole premise of the bull market rests on the perceived "triangle" pattern, and if it does not play out, the whole scenario may need a re-look.
  • My analysis attempts to identify, possible termination of known patterns, and then look for a low R/R scenario to trade. The counts and the forecast comes second, (Though this is in no way a trading recomendation.)
  • Targets for this potential setup has been reserved purposefully, as it depends on the individuals trading systems, to decide what the trade parameters will be. I will update my blog as and when I feel we are at a critical juncture of pattern development.
  • Most importantly, there is no compulsion for the readers to deliberate on what is shared on this blog, so if you don't like it, please look for better ones, that being said I always welcome constructive criticism.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Nifty - Technical Update

  1. Nifty has followed the script so far. We are bang in the middle of the consolidation zone discussed earlier (5750-5900).
  2. We have not yet broken out of the down slanting TL discussed in the last post.
  3. This consolidation should continue through this week, and may spillover in the next.
  4. I am looking for resumption of the up move once this correction is done with.
  5. One can gather additional clues from a shorter fractal, discussed below.
  1. This hourly chart shows we have hit a ceiling for the time being around 5950 zone. 
  2. We may need to correct towards the NL to find support and additional buyers to propel us through the down slanting TL.
  3. Look for 5700 odd levels to offer support in coming weeks.
  4. I am not yet sold on the short case, but should such circumstances arise, I will point it out accordingly.

Friday, September 06, 2013

Nifty - Technical Update

  1. Prices have recovered after the single day 200 point drubbing.
  2. This recovery has taken prices all the way up to the upper boundary of the resistance zone marked in last post (5600-5685).
  3. Now should prices break out from this supply zone, we have next one right after this, between 5750-5900.
  4. I am not sure at this point about what may happen if we enter this new zone 5750-5900, but it might tilt the balance in favor of the bulls.
  5. Of course a confirmation of a trend change would come once we break out from the slanting TL just above the blue box on the chart above.
  6. It would be very interesting to watch the prices if they reach the 5750-5900 band.
  7. Right now, till we take out 5685, there is a chance that sellers may return.
  8. Above 5685, we may test the upper boundary of the 5750-5900 band.

Monday, September 02, 2013

Nifty - Technical Update

  1. Nifty closed above a falling TL, indicative of a BO. But is this BO for real.
  2. Well we need more confirmation whether the down move is complete, or we are rising to fall again.
  3. For this up move to continue, we must take out the 5600-5685 band.
  4. We are already at a crucial resistance of 5566, if we take it out, then the resistance zone mentioned takes effect.
  5. The skies are clear once we take out these two levels, though.
  6. So keep your risks measured till the time all these resistances are taken out, till such time there is a real risk of sellers returning.