Tuesday, July 02, 2013

USDINR - Elliott Wave Update

  1. USDINR was rising in a rising wedge formation since the 2008 equity market crisis.
  2. The trend is unmistakable, and strong, but from price extremes come big moves. 
  3. We have a potential for one such scenario playing out, but one must tread cautiously, as the underlying trend can spring back to life without any warning.
  4. There was a fibo confluence zone around 62 to 60.40, and we seem to have found selling pressure here, indicate towards a pause.
  5. Oscillators are in OB zone.
  6. Classical EWP practitioners would feel confident of pattern completion as the pattern preceding the last up leg was a triangle, which according to classical EWP precedes last thrust in the trend.
  1. There is a broad support zone between 58.92 - 57.30.
  2. The current OB status on the oscillators suggest prices should recede a bit. MACD is showing negative divergence (not shown on the charts).
  3. Below 57.30 we may see the larger trend reversing.
  4. The long standing support TL on RSI, should give an early warning of a reversal if violated.

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