Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Silver - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Silver had a stupendous run, and everybody's aware of it.
  2. Many are now feeling sour as Silver did not reach the moon (as promised by brokers, advisers, et all), and they are stuck with long (even worse physical Silver) positions, very close to the moon. The only problem is, prices are closer to earth and are coming further down.
  3. But is there a structure to this down move, and to the upmove that preceded, well fortunately there is, and that might help us realize where exactly are we in the big picture, and where shall we get an opportunity to reduce our holdings (and pain) at a better price.
  4. We are in a corrective counter trend move (as EWP suggests us), and though the correction may not be over, it will certainly give us upward spurts in prices, to lighten our holdings. So when do we know that there is a spurt coming, well whenever the prices complete a clean 3 wave corrective move, we will get an upward spurt.
  5. Is there a chance like it on the horizon? Well we cant be certain about it (for that matter about anything) but we can surely put odds in our favor a little bit just at the right time, by using EWP.
  6. We are in an [a]-[b]-[c] downmove, and the wave [c] as always consists of 5 waves.
  7. We are currently in wave (3) of [c] which means there is some more downside before we complete this wave [c]. So far as this wave [c] is incomplete, any bounce we might get will be promptly sold into.
  8. I can identify some support zones on the chart, where Silver might find some demand.
  9. We are currently in one such area between 41875-40000, below 40000 though the next area of support comes around 33900-31600. Also notice the lower boundary of the falling channel.
  10. All these observations suggests that one should not hurry to jump on the long side, wait for the prices to complete their course, show signs of reversing at important support zones, and then buy. Till then enjoy the toboggan ride!

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