Saturday, April 27, 2013

Gold - Tehnical Update

  1. Some resistance levels for Gold.
  2. The most important one was tested yesterday around 27450, the gap formed on 15th April. The long bearish tail of the shooting star of spinning top, suggests renewed selling interest at this important resistance level.
  3. These resistance zones are marked using fibonacci cluster zones and some classical TA principles.
  4. These levels may be helpful in devising a trading strategy for Gold.
  5. Watch out for interesting candlestick formations at these important resistance levels.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Reliance - Technical Update

  1. A multi month trend line was broke yesterday, but today the prices got back right below it.
  2. A false breakout perhaps.
  3. I would give it some time before making up an opinion. The 760 odd support level is quite strong.
  4. Once again patience is the virtue.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

SBI - Technical Update

  1. Interesting candle stick formation on this counter.
  2. Yesterday was a bearish engulfing.
  3. Today in all probabilities should be an inside day, plus a spinning top.
  4. A resistance zone is developing between 2330 - 2360 (not shown on the chart).
  5. It might not be out of place to expect some stalling of this sharp upmove.
  6. But more confirmation required before forming a strong opinion. the prevailing trend is strong.

DI - Technical Update

  1. This is a monthly chart of DI.
  2. We can see a trending period of approx 4 years followed by a coiling pattern for double that time approx 8 years.
  3. Now such a  long consolidation should be followed by a burst of price action, which way we cannot say right now.
  4. Many of the wise ones are predicting either an upmove or a downmove, but we cant be sure unless prices confirm.
  5. Another possibility is for this coiling to continue, which might delay the eventual trending move.
  6. So we have a great pattern on a very long term fractal, and if we remain patient and wait for a clear BO/BD from this triangular consolidation, we should get a multi year trending move to play with.
  7. Now that would not be such a bad deal. 
  8. SO don't get ahead of yourself and certainly not the markets, just wait patiently, and  reap the benefits.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Banknifty, SBIN, ICICIBank - Technical Update

  1. Looking at the monthly chart of Banknifty, one cannot help but notice a rising wedge formation.
  2. Whatever the implications of such a pattern (no need to discuss it here, most technical analysts know it very well), we first need this pattern to complete.
  3. And to complete this pattern we may need to test the top trend line of this pattern, anywhere in the neighborhood of 16000, on the Banknifty.
  1. ICICBank shares similar traits, evident from the charts.
  2. One quite revealing observation would be the volume, which is next to dismal, and quite fitting to the characteristics of a rising wedge.
  1. SBIN is not displaying a clear rising wedge formation. But the approximate triangle formation near the bottom of the channel with a nearly horizontal top channel line, is suggesting a supply zone developing.
  2. Should prices take out that area of supply, we may see a sharp surge in the prices showed by dark blue line.
  3. Volume again is declining with occasional spurts of interests. 
So we might have some good days ahead of us, should the prices in the above counters follow what we have dared to see. I have not cluttered the post with many charts, but I feel my readers will get the point. This is a possibility I have discussed, any contrasting views are welcome. With so much going on all around the world, its easy to miss an important clue, so your views and comments are welcome.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Gold - Technical Update

  1. There is a possibility of prices pausing at the 200 EMA (around 24120).
  2. Most likely prices may test 22800 - 21600 near term.
  3. If we have started a bear market in Gold, then we may get sharp counter trend rallies. It may be prudent to watch out for short term oversold conditions for a bounce and to reposition in this down trend.

  1. This is the chart for international Gold.
  2. In this case the first support zone is between 1300 - 1225.
  3. But below that we may test 1030 - 930 zone, but this second zone is a medium term target.
  4. This bear market may persist for a while, since it is correcting a multi year trend.
Overall this stupendous bull run may have run its course, and we may have at best a sideways to down market on our hand.

    Monday, April 15, 2013

    LT - Technical Update

    1. The weekly chart shows important TL support.
    2. Break down from this TL may result in continuation of downmove.
    3. Early sign of near term mood change to bullish would be a close above 5 WEMA currently @ 1380.
    1. The last leg on the weekly chart lends itself to peculiar TL construction on daily chart.
    2. There is a chance of prices taking that support, and head up.
    3. We have a couple of levels (1387, 1432) which would have to be taken out for this upmove to sustain.

    Friday, April 12, 2013

    USDINR - Technical Update

    1. Nothing new here, almost everyone interested in USDINR know that prices are into a coiling pattern.
    2. Its a matter of time before we get a resolution.
    3. One point to note though, since this has been a prolonged correction, the resolution may seem to take forever, and may include many futile attempts by eager traders to catch the much anticipated breakout or breakdown.
    4. My suggestion is its okay to let go of first few points, because there would be a long way to go.
    5. One cautionary note though, since we have traveled so close to the apex, there is a chance that the much awaited BO / BD may fizzle out. 
    6. So, since the anticipation is so high, patience is the key to successfully trading this pattern.

    Wednesday, April 10, 2013

    Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

    1. I had pointed out the 5600-5500 band. Now the market is precariously poised in that range, desperately seeking for further clues.
    2. EWP as usual has put us on cross roads again. If we break this level confidently then we are in for a big fall.
    3. And if supported at these levels, once again a possibility of new high beckons.
    4. The trend is surely down, but that's what's special about EWP, just when the sentiment is extreme EWP suggests a possible reversal.
    5. Right now I am keeping my fingures crossed, as USDINR is just not ready to break the range, and Nifty at critical cross roads.
    6. If already short, one should hold on to them, and think about longs only on strong signs of reversals to the upside.

    Saturday, April 06, 2013

    Bhartiartl - Elliott Wave Update

    1. My last post on Bharti called for some waiting around (refer it here). If you had only followed the advice you would have saved yourself from the excruciating and volatile downmove in Bharti. But what is the chart telling us NOW is the most important thing, lets have a look.
    2. First and foremost (baring the spike low 5th Oct 2012) we do have a clear 5 wave move in place. What have followed since is an ending diagonal type formation, which might be a complex 2nd wave correction.
    3. But thats a wave count, and is subject to evolution. So let us investigate the technical evidence for a possible end to this correction.
    4. First and foremost, the recent low has formed on lower volume than the previous relative low, suggesting a reduction is selling interest.
    5. RSI may be forming a higher low, which may create a positive divergence. 
    6. The candlestick pattern formed yesterday, is called a spinning top, suggests indecision amongst participants, so we may see prices moving sideways, before a clear direction sets in.
    7. The price pattern forming is looking line an ED, which has a reputation of abruptly reversing.
    8. That's the evidence for waning momentum on the downside, but nothing yet suggests a turn in prices. What do you need is  some confirmation to signal an actual turn in prices.
    9. For starters a close above the Short Term EMA (red color) would signal a change in mood.
    10. A breakout above the falling TL in RSI, would be great too.
    11. A confluence zone is on the chart between 260 - 270, so there is an increased chance of prices taking support in this range.
    I thank you for going through the post, and if you find it useful, please let your friends in on this.