Friday, February 15, 2013

Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

  1. I have a feeling that this impulse move which started from the left bottom of the chart looks finished.
  2. Now I have changed the position of wave (4) from my last post, this particular count has following targets to achieve, to be called complete.
  3. The correction should travel at least 316.15 and/or should travel past the blue vertical line out to the right of the price on the above chart, roughly 29 days from the recent top in Nifty at 6111.80.
  4. It certainly looks like the price target should be overcome sooner that later, if we also overcome the time then we have a stage set for a good up move.
  5. Though it is still very very early days from the pattern point of view, but still the minimum requirements of the correction to an impulse wave is that it should be deeper and/or longer than the deepest and longest correction in the said impulse wave.

Goldbees - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Goldbees seems to forming a 3 wave counter trend move, the trend still being up. We have RSI being locked up near the bull zone for more than a couple of months.
  2. We have a channel support, and a falling wedge taking shape, also the wave [c]==[a] level comes around 2867.30, we are around that level.
  3. There is no conclusive evidence yet of a trend reversal on the chart above, but the Gold contract traded on MCX tells a different story. Have a look at its chart below.
  1. In this chart we can spot a Double Three correction. We got a sharp bounce from the possible end to the DT at [y]?.
  2. If this last up move from [y]? is not retraced fully we may have a potential bullish scenario at hand.
  3. This chart is a bit encouraging but the low at [y]? must be held.
  4. Now lets look at Silver chart from MCX for additional clues.
  1. Silver seems to have resumed its down trend after completing a wave (4) triangle. We have some potential support areas marked on the chart.
  2. Again this looks like a potential 3 wave corrective move, or may be I am looking too hard.
  3. But if what I am seeing is correct then we have a possible trending move on our hand, and it should be tradable.
Note: This is just an observation and not a trading recommendation in any way. Suggestions and criticisms (constructive) are most welcome.

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Sintex - Technical Update

  1. Sintex is forming a continuation HnS pattern as seen on Daily chart above. 
  2. The preceding downtrend may continue. 
  3. A small pennant is forming just around the NL, a BD from its lower boundary should be a good entry point in this downtrend.
  4. RSI and ROC have given BD from TLs. Currently getting resisted at their respective MAs.
  5. A weekly chart is attached below for reference.

Rpower - Technical Update

  1. Rpower has been forming a descending triangle, since Oct high.
  2. Prices have resolved on the downside, with a clear break down below the lower boundary of the triangle.
  3. The target for this pattern comes around 69, but an important low is at 75.2. So support can be expected in this range of 75-69.
  4. Keep an eye on the Nifty, for what broader market is doing.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Nifty is testing an approximately 6 month old TL. We might even break this one.
  2. EWP suggests that we are looking for a wave (4), and 4th waves ofter break these TL in an impulse move.
  3. If we do break below the TL, we have next round of support coming around, 5823-5777.
  4. Below that we might even test 5583-5549 odd levels.
  5. But there is every chance that we might get supported between these two bands of support, should we get there.
  6. Both the 2nd waves so far have been sharp and short, whereas the last 4th wave of one lesser degree was a drawn out affair. That is what we should be expecting here.
  7. But only market knows what it is doing, or may even that is doubtful, so as always it is better to let the market tip its hand first.

Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Stock Ideas

  1. This weekly chart shows a rounding (saucer) formation. And a complex HnS as a pattern within pattern.
  2. We have a BO above NL, a decent rally of 10+ percent. Prices have also retraced back to the NL, and is now testing it.
  3. ROC is testing a support TL, and RSI is in the Bull Zone.
  4. Nothing is confirmed yet, but still a bullish picture unless we break strongly below the NL.
  1. On the daily chart, the up move which broke out above the NL, looks like an impulsive move.
  2. Now prices have retraced in 3 waves.
  3. The last leg of this move is resembling an ED in wave (5) of [c].
  4. We have a resistance line on ROC, a BO above this line may give an advance signal of an impending up move.
  5. RSI and ROC are also showing a positive divergence.
Note: No action should be taken in anticipation of a trend reversal. Unless prices confirm a reversal, no commitment should be made.

Tuesday, February 05, 2013

Stock Ideas

  1. LT looks like it is moving in a clear impulse pattern. So long as the top of wave [1] is intact (marked by horizontal line - 1442).
  2. It seems wave [4] might be a triangle, and is looking like it is nearing completion.
  3. A BO above (b)-(d) TL, should be a good signal, of completion of wave [4], and an entry signal for wave [5].
  4. It seems like RS of LT is improving against Nifty (chart not shown).
  5. Wave [5] should target 1800 odd levels.

USDINR - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Weekly and Daily fractals are not looking too good for USDINR. The weight of evidence is suggesting we have some more room left on the downside.
  2. The hourly chart above may be offering some hope, to bulls, but we need more confirmation.
  3. A high volume BO above the upper channel boundary for starters.
  4. There is an alternate count possible, one in which the wave [5] may extend on the downside.
  5. If that happens, clearly we will be looking at much lower levels, possibly around 52 on the USDINR.
  6. A BO should give us a 3 wave rally at least.
  7. So more confirmation required for longs and if the alternate count is confirmed with a break below the recent low, we may expect 52 ish levels on USDINR.

Saturday, February 02, 2013

USDINR - Technical Update

  1. A 5 wave decline can be spotted on the chart, with prices taking support bang on the lower channel boundary marked by the blue circle.
  2. One can make a case for longs at this juncture, citing very low risk to reward ratio.
  3. But I guess trading at this juncture is like playing with fire, it would be better to wait for the markets to tip their hand first.
  4. Else it has always been fun to get trapped on the wrong side and then hope for the markets to go our way!

Friday, February 01, 2013

Gold - Technical Update

  1. Gold seems to have completed a thrust from a triangle (triangles are supposed to precede last leg of a move according to EWP - Prechter). The thrust is composed of 5 waves (marked on the chart).
  2. ROC is forming a HnS, but havent yet given a BD from NL.
  3. Also the top line of the triangle may offer some support to this fall.
  4. But the decider is the wave [1] start (marked by red line), if it is violated, then we can safely conclude that prices have put in an intermediate term top.
  1. A big up trending channel can be seen, and we are still inside it.
  2. But a significant TL (almost an year old) has been violated, that will take its toll on prices.
  3. We may test the lower boundary if the TL, if we take out the supports shown on the daily chart above, for starters.
  4. Whether this break turns out to be a bear market or just another dip to jump on the train, in time we will know!
  5. Right now the picture does not look too good for the bulls.