Thursday, January 10, 2013

Crudeoil - Elliott Wave Update

  1. We had pointed out the diamond formation in Crude refer chart here. Also the possibility of a rally to test the upper boundary of the diamond formation (which we got, BO from possible HnS). Well the view is still valid, but we need to monitor any fresh developments to place ourselves in a possible change of trend, before others and with as little capital exposure as possible.
  2. We have a possibility of one such pattern developing currently on Crude chart above. We have found some resistance bang in the middle of the resistance zone of 5125-5225, and are turning down from there.
  3. At such resistance clusters, bar patterns which are notorious for giving false signals, hit the nail on the head. If this week closes down, that is if the close is below the open of 5120, we could have  potential turning point on our hand (a reversal day), I prefer to short right into the close such a pattern to be very sure that the pattern that is identified is correct. With a SL above the recent high of 5169.
  4. If 5169 indeed turns out to be a top, we have a minimum target for expected down leg around 4305, that is a decent move (don't forget we are tracking weekly fractal), with the expected down leg equal to the one preceding the correction.
  5. But a caveat, this wave count is not carved in stone, and neither the view expressed by the author of this post. I may turn out to be a complete fool, and I often do in this uncertain environment, but the risk reward is skewed in the favor of the sellers, and that is enough most of the times.

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