Saturday, November 10, 2012

Gold, Nifty, Banknifty - Technical Analysis

Nifty Daily
Nifty correction may extend, if we break below the support zone of 5700-5680. The fall may extend to 5595, and even further (less likely) to 5535.
Banknifty Daily
Banknifty seems to be forming a flat correction. Support may come around 11200-11070 levels. But one should be watchful of 5700-5680 levels on Nifty. If that support holds, Banknifty may not reach its target levels.
Gold Daily
Gold has staged a smart rally. But I am not completely sure that we have embarked on a new uptrend. The price area between 31900-31740 is crucial. If we sustain above this band we may, start the rally. But getting resisted at these levels is not a good sign, at least in the short term. In that case, the correction may extend down.
Gold Monthly
The monthly chart of gold shows a typical pattern. The first set of diverging blue line, on volume and price ranges from mid 2010 to mid 2011. We can see that prices moved up and volume decreased. Contrary to popular wisdom, that rising prices and falling volume is bearish, prices exploded soon afterwards. Now the second set of diverging blue lines, ranging from late 2011 till date. Here too we have a rising price structure in conjunction with falling volume. Not sure what will follow. But if the old pattern is recurring, then a break above the resistance zone identified earlier around 31740-31900, may repeat history.

Thanks a lot for your precious time!


  1. Sir.
    In a corrective if A is impulse then C should be diagonal..
    If so current B started from B.a is impulse (4531-5630) then B.b 5630-4770
    B.C. started from 4770 to till date should be ending diagonal of form 3x3x3x3x3...
    But your are diving B.C3 as 5 wave...
    Can u pl re analyse yr labels...

    1. Well sir,
      I would say that waves a and c should alternate but it is not a rule for wave c to be an ending diagonal when wave a is an impulse. Though there exists a possibility that wave c may turn out to be an ending diagonal my emphasis is always on being on the right side of the market rather than getting the count correct. I am a trader first analyst later.
      Thankyou for taking time out to read and comment, appreciate it.

  2. HI Aniruddha, I am counting Nifty's upmove (since the RBI announcement and the drop in NIFTY) as a 5 wave upmove (with the 5th miniwave extending). My premonition that this might be 5:1 on Nifty is also because of 2 other things. The down move post RBI announcement ended exactly at 38.2% retracement of the explosive 3rd move we saw. Hence, that might be a good point for the 4th wave to have ended. Also, the down move we saw on Thursday (which I am labelling as 5:2:1) opened near the zone of the 2nd miniwave of the 5th extended wave (as suggested by ellioticians that post the 5th wave extension we see a fast first move towards the second miniwave of the 5th wave).

    These two things have made me believe that we are in the 5th wave. The obvious confirmation would come if the top of this move is broken. But keeping this count in mind, I am keeping my longs open.


    1. Dear Andy,
      It would be very helpful if you could post a chart of your count.
      My email is [email protected]
      Thanks for your comments.

  3. Dear Aniruddhaji,

    Happy Diwali to you & your family.


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