Saturday, October 13, 2012

USDINR, Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

USDINR may have completed a 5 wave advance marked [1], now we should be looking for a 3 wave pullback, to confirm the up trend. Prices may have completed 2 of the 3 waves of the pullback. I feel prices may test 52.40-52.20 zone, before resuming the up trend. 
Nifty Hourly
Nifty is on the verge of completing an important 5 wave advance. The 5th wave may be forming a terminal triangle. The consolidation should continue for a while and then a break down would confirm a short to medium term end to this up move to begin with. A breakout on the other hand would warn of  serious flaw in this analysis. But this much information should be sufficient to manage risks properly.


  1. Hi Aniruddha,

    How bout a TZZ in play ??

    W: 4770-5349
    X: 5349-5033-5449-5216
    Y: 5216-5815
    XX: 5815-5637** in play or done ??
    Z : UP to finish as a 3wave

    1. I was looking for a top below the 2011 highs. A triple ZZ may take prices above or very close to the previous highs, a sign of strength, whereas I am looking for weakness. Can't reject it altogether but clearly not to my liking. Let the market show some signs for further strength then I will reassess the situation.:)

    2. hahha.. well then let me give u some more "food for thought"

      Fall from 6339-4531 was a 3wave sort... in that case ,chances of playing an ABC FLAT r very high,

      If this is a B wave up from 4531 , it has to do min 80%xA , giving us MIn. tgt of 5980 !

      If we r doing a WXY, & Y:4531-5815** , then its a diff story ...

      Vichar karayla harkat nahi, kaay ?? ;-)

    3. I am in favour of th ABC flat. And a retracement of more than 61.8% is enough for flat scenario. More ever I feel we might form an elongated flat with wave C being 161.8% of wave A.
      I propose a triangle formation in progress on a very large fractal. It may either be a continuation triangle or a terminal (my preference). If a continuation type then it started at the 2008 top. And of a terminal type then much before that. In either case we are slated to fall in near future.

    4. mmm.. if the EW view is ST top in place to be formed, next pertinent Q is the Trade Mgmt part

      Now, how do you propose to use this "plausible" information from EW to trade options / Futurz ?

      What is the trigger to sell ? How many pts SL do u generally use, &

      what would be the Risk-Reward ratio expectation that one would look @ before entering shorts?

    5. I have trading systems for different market conditions, which I use depending on my market expectations based on my EW analysis. Risk reward ratios are biased by personal preferences. My personal trigger to sell is a confident break below. 5535.


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