Thursday, September 06, 2012

Nifty, USDINR - Elliott Wave Update

Hourly Chart
These are hourly charts for Nifty and USDINR. On the Nifty chart we can see prices breaking out from a wedge like pattern, also we have bee trading in the support zone for some time now. If buying has to emerge in Nifty, it should happen in this range. If the breakout from the falling channel gets good followup we may see higher prices on Nifty in coming days.
The USDINR chart sports a completed 5 wave move, now labelled as wave {1} on the chart below, we may see some consolidation before we resume the trend. As you can see, the price pattern of (1)-(2)-{1} also looks like a 3 wave move. So price action following this pattern will decide what the larger trend is. Since we have been in this range for almost a couple of months now, its not easy to bet which side the breakout would occur. In the morning though, USDINR broke the 56 barrier only briefly, if we make another dash at it, after consolidating in wave wave {2}, we may get our much awaited breakout.
Hourly Chart
Note: It is a widespread belief amongst traders that there seems to an inverse correlation in USDINR and Nifty, as both move counter to each other, but there have been periods when both the counters have moved in unison, so well, as made almost to believe that there is a direct relationship amongst the two. I suggest you follow both separately and manage your risks properly.

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