Wednesday, August 22, 2012

India Banks, short term strength on "Cards"!

Banknifty Weekly
Banknifty is in a corrective rally. We are expecting wave III of {C}, but somehow Banknifty is not rising. If we look at the charts of some private banks below, we can see they are rising as the patterns unfold, but the reason for Banknifty's consolidation is the sharp fall in some of the PSU banks (Charts attached below). This sharp fall is preventing Banknifty from rising, but now it seems that we may have formed at least a short term bottom in these PSU banks. Now PSU banks may as well rise along with the private banks. This will surely help the cause of Banknifty as well as Nifty. But be mindful of the fact that, we may be in the last rally of an important corrective pattern.
HDFC Bank Weekly
HDFC Bank may be rising in wave III of {V}.  
HDFC Weekly
HDFC is breaking out a long consolidation in wave {IV}, the consolidation has formed a triangle pattern, typical of 4th waves.
ICICI Bank Weekly
ICICI Bank has formed a clear impulse down as wave {I}, and is now forming wave {II}. The pattern that is forming is a zigzag, typical of 2nd waves.
SBIN Weekly
SBIN too completed a clear impulse down in {I}, and now correcting it with a possible zigzag, but the wave B of the zigzag may e forming a triangle pattern.
Bankindia Weekly
Bank of India seems to have completed an expanding ending diagonal pattern in wave V of {I}, we may see a corrective pattern now, possibly a zigzag, to correct this impulsive down move in wave {II}.

Note: EWP is a creative faculty, and not subject to mechanization in its original form. But this does not mean that there is a lack of objectivity to it. This is an attempt at forecasting the future course of action of Indian Stock Markets, perhaps, the most influential of the sectors. Though Forecasting is not a healthy habit for a trader, for an analyst such excursions should be allowed to release the creative tension, which sometimes builds due to excessive objectivity. All great achievements started with a dream, and this is one of mine. One last attempt to lure the blindfolded, before the culling begins!


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