Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Nifty, Banknifty - Elliott Wave Analysis

So (3) of [3] of III it is. 10382.30 was touted as an important level, it is the orthodox end point of the wave B of {B}. Now that it has been surpassed, we can expect the rise to continue till the top of wave {A}around 11226.80.
The hook on MACD should now gather strength, and we should see a sharp spurt in the price, which is typical of third waves. The only hitch remaining is that Nifty has not crossed above the price level of wave B of {B}. Once it is done, we should see this uptrend continue, till the respective wave {A} end points, which for Nifty comes around 5630 levels. The hourly chart for Nifty is shown below.


  1. hello sir. do you keep a count of the weekly nifty charts? According to my count of the weekly nifty charts, nifty has completed wave A from year Jan 2008 to Dec 2008 and has also completed wave B from year Jan 2009 to Nov 2011. The type of correction is regular flat and nifty is currently in wave C. Wave C should be 5 wave correction pattern. Hence, sub-wave 1 of wave C was completed in Sept 2011 and sub-wave 2 of wave was an irregular flat correction between Sept. 2011 to February 2012. Currently, nifty is in sub-wave 3 of wave C which should have a target of around 4300. Also the current rally should not extend beyond 5430 for my count to hold true. Accordingly, nifty should reach 4300 by the end of the year and by early 2013 nifty should rally to complete sub-wave 4 of wave C. I think slowly nifty will shift it's range between 4300 to 5300.

    1. I do track Nifty on a very long fractal, I do refer the monthly chart sometimes too. But since I trade on the hourly fractal, and refer daily for my trend directions, I tend to avoid forming too rigid opinions on those higher fractals of weekly and monthly, as it helps me focus on the hourly and daily trend. What you are suggesting may actually be true, but to confirm patterns on weekly fractal we need substantial moves to happen, even before we are sure of the validity of the pattern. So what I do is to concentrate on medium term moves and then label my weekly and monthly chart as and when the patterns are confirmed. And also kindly attach the labeled charts so that I get exactly what you are trying to suggest.


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